Population, environment and development; survey and statistical methods
RESEARCH INTERESTS
My research investigates population-environment interactions in the developing world using survey and statistical methods (i.e., methods from the quantitative social sciences). As described below, one research strand focuses on environmental influences on human migration and a second on human dimensions of land use change. I use structured household surveys and multivariate statistics to provide new insight to these issues, complementing previous work in geography which has primarily used spatial and qualitative methods. For more info, see also this bio piece about me on the website of the Carolina Population Center.
ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON HUMAN MIGRATION
One research strand focuses on the consequences of environmental change and variability for human migration, including both internal and international migration. This issue has gained considerable attention in the context of global climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as of yet relatively few quantitative studies have investigated these effects. My research has investigated these relationships in the context of Ecuador, East Africa, Bangladesh, and post-tsunami Indonesia. Key collaborators on this work include Richard Bilsborrow, Valerie Mueller, Duncan Thomas and Elizabeth Frankenberg. Together these studies confirm that environmental factors have important influences on migration, but the results are not consistent with Neo-Malthusian predictions that environmental degradation will universally displace permanent migrants over long distances.
Journal Articles
Gray, C., and V. Mueller. (2012). Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(16): 6000-6005. [Link] [Open access preprint]
Gray, C., and V. Mueller. (2012). Drought and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development 40(1): 134–145. [Link]
Gray, C. (2011). Soil quality and human migration in Kenya and Uganda. Global Environmental Change 21: 421–430. [Link] [Pubmed open access]
Gray, C. (2010). Gender, natural capital and migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Environment and Planning A 42(3): 678-696. [Link]
Gray, C. (2009). Environment, land and rural out-migration in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. World Development 37(2): 457-468. [Link]
Working Papers and Other Publications
Frankenberg, E. , C. Gray, C. Sumantri, and D. Thomas. (2011). Return migration after the tsunami in Indonesia. Paper presented to the Population Association of America. Washington DC, March 31-April 2. [Link]
Gray, C. and R. Bilsborrow. (2010). Environmental influences on out-migration in rural Ecuador. Paper presented to the Population Association of America, Dallas, April 15-17. [Link]
Gray, C. (2010). Environmental refugees or economic migrants? Online article for the Population Reference Bureau.
Gray, C., E. Frankenberg, T. Gillepsie, C. Sumantri and D. Thomas. (2009). Tsunami-induced displacement in Sumatra, Indonesia. Paper presented to the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Marrakech, September 27-October 2. [Link]
Gray, C. (2008). Out-migration and rural livelihoods in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Doctoral dissertation in the UNC-CH Department of Geography. [Open access]
HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF LAND USE CHANGE
A second strand of research focuses on the consequences of changing livelihood strategies for land use change and deforestation in rural Ecuador. Ecuador is a highly biodiverse country in which oil exploration, indigenous land claims, and rapid international out-migration present both threats and opportunities to the conservation of lowland and upland forests. In Spring 2012 I initiated a new project that will investigate changes in the land use and livelihoods of indigenous peoples in the Ecuadorian Amazon, building on a 2001 project by Richard Bilsborrow and Flora Lu. (See this paper for additional background.) This effort will include structured follow-up interviews with approximately 500 households in 30 indigenous communities of five ethnicities to collect information about their land use, livelihoods, demography and well-being. Subsequent analyses will examine the direction and drivers of change over time using multivariate methods.
Journal Articles
Lu, F., C. Gray, R. Bilsborrow, C. Mena, J. Bremner, A. Barbieri, C. Erlien, and S. Walsh. (2010). Contrasting colonist and indigenous impacts on Amazonian forests. Conservation Biology 24(3): 881-885. [Link]
Gray, C. (2009). Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Population and Environment 30(4): 193-217. [Link]
Gray, C., R. Bilsborrow, J. Bremner, and F. Lu. (2008). Indigenous land use in the Ecuadorian Amazon: A cross-cultural and multilevel analysis. Human Ecology 36(1): 97-109. [Link]
Rindfuss, R., B. Entwisle, S. Walsh, C. Mena, C. Erlien, and C. Gray. (2007). Frontier land use: Synthesis, challenges, and next steps. The Annals of the Association of American Geographers 97(4): 739-754. [Link]
Working Papers
Gray, C., and R. Bilsborrow. (2012). Consequences of out-migration for land use in rural Ecuador. Paper presented to the Association of American Geographers, New York, February 24-28. [Link]
TEACHING
GEOG 120 World Regional Geography: Fall 2007 Syllabus
GEOG 450 Population Geography: Fall 2011 Syllabus
PROSPECTIVE STUDENTS
Prospective graduate students interested in population, development and the environment should contact me well ahead of the application deadline by sending a CV and statement of research interests. Well-qualified students will have a degree in geography, environmental studies or another cognate field, field experience in the developing world, and/or training in quantitative methods.
UNC AFFILIATIONS
POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT LINKS
Population and Environment (journal)
MY CV
